Group Normative Propensities, Societal Positioning, and Childbearing: Ethno-linguistic Variation in Completed and Desired Fertility in Transitional Central Asia

Abstract Considerable research in western, low-fertility contexts has examined minority-vs.-majority fertility differentials, typically focusing on minority groups’ cultural idiosyncrasies and socioeconomic disadvantages associated with status. However, the formation functioning of ethnic complexities outside western world often diverge from standard model so may their impact preferences, behavior, outcomes. We expand previous by analyzing variation completed desired multiethnic transitional setting Kyrgyzstan, where groups ethnolinguistic sub-parts are characterized both different stages demographic transition positioning political hierarchies. Using combined data two rounds a nationally representative survey, we find that ethnic-specific levels generally align culturally shaped group-level normative propensities. In contrast, desires to have a(nother) child, ranking segments is more reflective collective societal positioning, disadvantaged having lower desires, regardless actual number children various other characteristics. also homophily respondents’ social milieu optimism about future group positively even though these associations potently present among women, compared men. relate our findings extant scholarship reflect implications for better understanding ethno-racial dynamics differentials contexts.